Online Commerce Overview
According to comScore’s eCommerce Brief, total online spend grew 9% Y/Y to $18.5B, which reflects a moderate acceleration vs. up 7% Y/Y in June and up 8% Y/Y in May.
Reportedly, comScome reveals that July Y/Y growth also shows a modest acceleration vs. 8% Y/Y growth reported in Q2: 10 & Q1: 10. Some key segments that contributed to this are primarily the 20% Y/Y increase in Books and Magazines, 16% Y/Y growth in online sales of Computers and Peripherals with a 16% Y/Y growth in online sales and finally a 12% Y/Y increase in Computer Software and Jewelry purchases.
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Total U.S. Online Retail Spend increased 14% Y/Y to $39.7B in Q2, 0.3% below the 14.3% Y/Y in Q1. A 12% Y/Y Growth in 2010 U.S. eCommerce is estimated at this point, which means that approximately $160B in Online Retail spend in 2010 and is driven by 5% overall growth for U.S. Retail Sales and approximately 25 bps of overall Offline-to-Online Retail share shift in 2010.
eBay shares are down 10% YTD in a roughly flat market, including down as much as 30% from late March highs. Y/Y Online Retail Traffic was up 14.6% Y/Y, modestly positive, vs. Q2 and Q1 traffic trends at about 13.0% Y/Y growth. comScore tracked 16% Y/Y Amazon’s growth for the U.S. website, a deceleration vs. 21% in Q2 and 24% in Q1, and they’ve tracked a 2% Y/Y decline to eBay’s U.S. Website, a better trend vs. its 5% Y/Y decline in Q2 and 4% Y/Y decline in Q1, despite tougher competition.
Specifically for eBay, PayPal continues to produce impressive Growth/Profits with H1:10 Payment Volume growth off-eBay an impressive 46% Y/Y ex-FX, and Payment Segment Profits up 55% Y/Y. The upshot is a long-term bottom-line PayPal growth outlook of 20%-30%. Also, eBay’s Marketplace may finally be showing improvement.
Some key points that on eBay’s Marketplace are, ChannelAdvisor, which reported stabilization (0% Y/Y change) in eBay Same Store Sale for July, after Y/Y declines in May and June of 4% and 5%. While comScore July eBay traffic data showed 1.5% Y/Y decline vs. an average of 4%-6% Y/Y over the prior four quarters and finally, the 8/10 launch on eBay UK of a Shopping Basket test may finally address arguably the single biggest User Interface gap on eBay.