ForecastIQ Says “Don’t Expect Big Bounce Back”

It appears that the downward spiral of same store sales growth has stabilized according to the November ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC) as there is some improvement for retailers. However, this isn’t necessarily good news because the majority of retailers tracked are likely/almost certain to see a decrease in same store sales now through January.

Most of the positive movement year-over-year in retailer forecasts was going from “almost certain” to see a decline in same store sales to “likely” to see a decline; which although encouraging, doesn’t translate into growth. The retailers who moved up slightly to likely to see a decline include: Nordstrom, Old Navy, Saks, American Eagle, Bon-Ton and Wet Seal.

On the other hand, bright spots continue to be the retailers with a discount offering. Ross and TJX are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales over the next six weeks. Youth-oriented retailers Aeropostale and Buckle are also poised to see an increase.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ™ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline through December follows:

Almost certain to see increase:   Almost certain to see decline:           
Buckle                            Abercrombie & Fitch         Ross                              Dillard’s                   Neiman Marcus     
TJX                               Gap                         Stage    
                                  Hot Topic                   Steinmart  
                                  JC Penney                     
                 

Likely to see increase:           Likely to see decline:     
Aeropostale                       Cato’s 
BJ’s                              Children’s Place  
Costco                            Nordstrom  
                                  Old Navy 
                                  Saks 
Flat:                             American Eagle
Banana Republic                   Bon-Ton       
Fred’s                            Wet Seal

For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ™: www.forecastiq.com