Mood Brightens; Outlook “Less Bad” for Retail Same Store Sales

Fewer Definite Declines, More Flat and One Moves to the Almost Certain Growth Column

COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 1/26/2010 – Forecasts for same store sale growth are inching upward for retailers from a year ago, according to the January ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Of the 27 retailers ForecastIQ® tracks every month, eight are likely/almost certain to see an increase in same store sales over in February and March (compared to seven in January ’09). More retailers are predicted to be flat and less are forecasted declines through March, indicating retailers aren’t necessarily as “sick,” but not yet on the road to a full recovery.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked

	JAN-2010	JAN-2009
Almost certain increase*	4	3
Likely increase	4	4
Flat	4	2
Likely decline	4	2
Almost certain decline	11	16

*An “almost certain increase” indicator means that in February and March, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.
Ross, TJX, Aeropostale and Buckle are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales through March. However, both Aeropostale’s and Buckle’s projected growth have leveled off since last year, while Ross and TJX make larger strides. Warehouse clubs BJ’s and Costo are likely to see an increase.
On the other hand, forecasts remain soggy for higher-priced retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap and Neiman Marcus; they are almost certain to post declines. Hot Topic is almost certain to see a decline as well, whereas a year ago they were likely to experience an increase.